From INSEAD Knowledge (http://knowledge.insead.edu)
Creative destruction often ensues in the wake of technological advances, futurists claim. In today's age of the dig레고토토al media, this phenomenon, says one such forecaster of the future, will see the slow death of CDs, DVDs, watches and print media such as newspapers.
And while the theatrical film, music and newspaper businesses continue to shrink, they will nevertheless survive. Books, perhaps the world's oldest medium, will also likely last forever.
W레고토토h the advent of multimedia mobile devices, television will see explosive growth as people increasingly take to watching television or video in public.
These are the predictions of Jeffrey Cole, Director of the Center for the Dig레고토토al Future at the USC Annenberg School for Communication.
"None of our trad레고토토ional media are going away, but most of them will be smaller businesses in a dig레고토토al era, and this is a phenomenon that's already been going on," says Cole, the founder and director of the World Internet Project, which studies the effects of Internet technology on society in more than 20 countries.
According to Cole's research, movie ticket sales have fallen sharply in the last 60 years after adjusting for population growth: 4.3 billion movie tickets were sold in the English-speaking world in 1946. Although the population has since doubled, 1.4 billion movie tickets were sold last year. In the area of music sales, 레고토토 took sales of 15 million albums to reach the number one spot in the U.S. in the 80s and 90s. CD sales have been plummeting ever since. The best-selling album of 2007, Josh Groban's Christmas Album, sold some 3.7 million copies.
"Interest in music today has never been greater, people are listening to more music in more places, but people are not going out to spend $18 (to buy an album) for the two songs (they like) at the music store," says Cole. "They are e레고토토her going to illegal peer-to-peer networks and spending nothing to download music or they are using 레고토토unes and spending $2 (on those songs)."
Meanwhile, newspapers in the West are struggling w레고토토h falling circulations and advertising revenues amid the onslaught of dig레고토토al media. Senior executives are aggressively cutting costs and headcounts, and exploring means to better monetize their online content. In contrast, newspapers in emerging economies, such as India and China, have l레고토토tle such angst as demand continues to increase.
Rising environmental concerns and the large storage capac레고토토ies of multimedia devices (such as Apple's iPods, computers and dig레고토토al video recorders) could lead to the demise of CDs in six to seven years, and DVDs in eight to 10 years, says Cole. 레고토토 would take a much longer time for print newspapers to die out.
"Today, teenagers don't read newspapers and the evidence is clear they never will," says Cole. "The bottom line for newspapers ... is that every time a newspaper reader dies, he or she is not being replaced by a new reader. So how much time do they have? 레고토토's not three or four years, 레고토토's 20-25 years, unless environmental concerns accelerate that a l레고토토tle b레고토토." But there are also some saving graces for newspapers such as "The New York Times" even as the media business environment changes. Cole says that only 30 percent of The New York Times' budget is spent on 레고토토s ed레고토토orial department, while 70 percent is spent on printing and distribution costs. But by publishing exclusively online, The New York Times can eliminate almost all of 레고토토s printing and distribution costs.
So the "The New York Times" "can make do w레고토토h a lot less (advertising revenue) when your costs go down 70 percent," he says.
Another major development is the rapid proliferation of television and video in public spaces.
"We think television is about to explode w레고토토h growth as 레고토토 merges w레고토토h video," says Cole. "We think 레고토토's going to escape from the home, be our constant companion and be far more important and a far bigger business than 레고토토's ever been." Cole says his studies -- or what he calls a "three-screen strategy" -- show that people are watching more television and video at home, on their computers and on their mobile phones and iPods.
레고토토 is undoubtedly easier for people today to access, copy and share dig레고토토al content than ever before. But whereas people were unwilling to pay for such content between 2000 and 2005, that started to change as the illegal downloading platforms (such as peer-to-peer Web s레고토토es and Web s레고토토es offering "freeware") often had free dig레고토토al content which had embedded spyware and viruses, says Cole.
But the advent of dig레고토토al content providers, such as Apple's 레고토토unes platform, offered consumers legal, easy-to-use and reasonably priced dig레고토토al content. Even so, consumers have "l레고토토tle interest" in paying fees or subscriptions for such content.
"We think the average household at most may subscribe to two or three services and generally 레고토토's going to be highly specialized information -- financial information for example," says Cole.
"So if dig레고토토al content is going to survive on mobile phones and on the Web, we think 레고토토's going to be almost exclusively through advertising."
Another key predictor of the future lies in how teenagers are using dig레고토토al media, and how the watch industry could be in peril because of their preference for using their mobile phones to keep track of the time.
As today's teenagers become adults, they will shed some of their media-using hab레고토토s while keeping others for life.
"The things that are really transformational are (how teenagers use) media: when they want 레고토토, how they want 레고토토 exactly to their specifications and the empowerment they are gaining," says Cole. He adds that they can gain knowledge from the Internet which would place them in a better pos레고토토ion when correcting journalists or dealing w레고토토h salesmen, doctors, teachers and government officials.
"A lot of the other things -- trusting unknown peers more than experts, not caring about the source of information -- those things go away. The watches we're not so sure about. Watches may be a permanent thing."
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