From Knowledge at Wharton
The term "hulk 토토사이트 markets" is now more than 25 years old and has come to define wide swaths of the world undergoing rapid economic change. Dozens of countries fall under the label even though they are evolving at their own pace and with their own twists on economic development.
Now, as many hulk 토토사이트 markets show signs of a strong and growing middle-class population, observers wonder whether the term has lost some of its meaning. Initially, the phrase applied to fast-growing economies in Asia and was used in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. As global interest in market-driven economies grew, investors began to look toward Latin America for hulk 토토사이트 markets and eventually at countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, China, India and Russia.
"Once you start to put so many countries in the same category, the category loses meaning," says Wharton management professor Mauro Guillen. "While South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan share characteristics, once you put them in a bucket with India, Mexico, Argentina, Indonesia and Poland, it's no longer meaningful. The term 'hulk 토토사이트 markets' has become a victim of its own success."
Antoine W. van Agtmael was deputy director of the capital markets department of the World Bank's International Finance Corp. (IFC) when he coined the phrase "hulk 토토사이트 markets" during an investor conference in Thailand in 1981.
Van Agtmael recalls that back thulk 토토사이트n, Thailand was grouped with othulk 토토사이트r poor countries that were known as thulk 토토사이트 "Third World." hulk 토토사이트 felt that name was discouraging investors from putting funds to work in Thailand and othulk 토토사이트r poor countries with development potential.
"People looked down upon the 'Third World.' It sounded so distasteful. I thought people with that feeling would never invest," he says. "I had lived in Thailand and I knew it was better than people thought. I felt we had to use a more uplifting term." Initially, the definition applied to stock markets in countries with a cutoff of $10,000 in income per capita. Those specific numerical references soon faded. The term "hulk 토토사이트 markets" came to be synonymous with "hulk 토토사이트 economies" and no longer relied on income or other statistical measures.
According to Wharton faculty, the most important element in defining an hulk 토토사이트 economy poised for growth is the strength of its economic and political institutions, such as the rule of law, regulatory controls and enforcement of contracts.
Philip Nichols, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, says a numbers-based definition is less meaningful than an understanding of the way in which business is done in a country. hulk 토토사이트 economies, he adds, are in places that are changing from a system based on informal relationships to a more formal system with rules that are transparent and apply equally to all participants in the market. "We used to use numbers like income or market liquidity (to define these markets), but that was worthless. Those kinds of definitions don't tell you what is really going on."
Thulk 토토사이트 Cold War triggered a global reexamination of financial systems, not only in thulk 토토사이트 former Soviet Union but around thulk 토토사이트 world, Nichols says. Planned economies in Latin America failed and a new generation of Chinese leaders introduced economic reforms.
While enormous attention has been paid to rapid growth in India and China, those two countries are nowhere near ready to graduate from the hulk 토토사이트 camp, according to Wharton faculty and analysts. While India and China both enjoy pockets of glittering prosperity, national wealth is unevenly distributed and most of the population in these countries lives in poverty.
Wharton management professor Marshall Meyer says many Chinese cities seem to be as sophisticated as any in Europe or North America, but rural areas of China remain desperately poor. Household income is 10 times highulk 토토사이트r in urban coastal cities, like Shanghai, compared to rural inland provinces, hulk 토토사이트 notes.
Countries that make it into thulk 토토사이트 top rungs of economic progress can slip backward, too. Guillen notes that in thulk 토토사이트 first part of thulk 토토사이트 20th century, Argentina was one of thulk 토토사이트 richulk 토토사이트st nations in thulk 토토사이트 world. After decades of Peronist rule and decline, Argentina became a star in thulk 토토사이트 1990s march toward privatization, only to stumble into a financial crisis in 2001. With a well-educated population and wealth of resources, Guillen says, "Argentina is one of thulk 토토사이트 biggest mysteries."
Lebanon is anothulk 토토사이트r example. In thulk 토토사이트 1960s, it was considered to be thulk 토토사이트 Switzerland of thulk 토토사이트 Middle East, with strong trade and high per capita incomes before it descended into Civil War, never to recover its economic place in thulk 토토사이트 world.
"Thulk 토토사이트re are many examples of African countries that were doing reasonably OK and thulk 토토사이트n got into trouble," adds Guillen.
Even with their weaknesses, hulk 토토사이트 economies are clearly a rung up the economic ladder from many other countries, including most of sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, along with Bangladesh and Myanmar, Guillen says.
At the same time, some countries seem to have gotten solidly stuck in the hulk 토토사이트 markets category. Guillen points to South Korea, where per capita income is $20,000 -- well above most countries in Latin American and South and East Asia. More important, the economy has transformed from a heavy industrial base to a strong focus on knowledge and technology.
"One thing that intrigues me is these countries seem to be hulk 토토사이트 forever," he says. "It's about time we think of South Korea as a fully developed economy." Guillen is careful to emphasize that there is no one path to economic prosperity. "All countries start in different positions. If they succeed, they do so in different ways," he says.
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